This example teaches you how to apply exponential smoothing to a time series in excel. Click on the name of the data series that represents the smoothed line, edit the cell range of the series to reflect the column that holds the particular smoothing technique, and click OK to close the editing dialog boxes. • Everything is presented in the context of n-gram language models, but smoothing is needed in many problem contexts, and most of the smoothing methods we’ll look at generalize without difficulty. Several techniques exist, from simple to more complicated. The random method, simple moving average, random walk, simple exponential, and exponential moving average are some of the methods used for data smoothing. Data Mining Techniques Data Mining Techniques 1.Classification: This analysis is used to retrieve important and relevant information about data, and metadata. Three period moving averages: Odd numbered values are preferred as the period for moving averages (e.g. Explanation: We have set the Damping Factor to 0.3, and alpha becomes 0.7. Smoothing is the process of removing noise from raw a input signal. For each data point in a series, replace that data point with the median of three numbers: the data point itself, the data point that precedes it, and the data point that follows. The objective is to get them to reveal themselves. Joseph Schmuller, PhD, is a Research Scholar at the University of North Florida. This allows important patterns to stand out. 3 or 5) because the average values is centred. CFA Institute Does Not Endorse, Promote, Or Warrant The Accuracy Or Quality Of WallStreetMojo. You will see all the available Analysis Tool Pack. The S curve can be used when we have little data and the famous bass diffusion model can be used to predict product sales even before the product is launched in the market. Exponential Triple Smoothing or ETS which is a commonly used forecasting technique that’s natively supported in Excel 2016. You can easily watch the effect of each successive smoothing technique on the smoothed line. You replace a data point with the sum of one-fourth the previous data point plus half the data point plus one-fourth the next data point. Step 8: We have completed all the fields. Why three numbers? I have selected the next column of the existing data, i.e., C2. Click in the Input Range box and select the range B2:M2. Sometimes an overall trend suggests a particular analytic tool. You can use optional methods for moving average, Savitzky-Golay filters, and local regression with and without weights and robustness (lowess, loess, rlowess and rloess). Note: can't find the Data Analysis button? Moving Averages help in smoothing the data. In EDA, you don’t just use one technique on a set of data. Click on the Data Analysis; you will see many statistical techniques. We will see one simple data to do the sales forecast for next year. Technically it is 1 – α (alpha). By default, it is not visible in excel. If your excel is not showing this pack, follow below steps to unleash this option. Step 1: Click on the Data tab and Data Analysis. Just fitting a regression line glosses over important things within baseball — things both great and small that make up a baseball season, an era, a history. Step 6: Now, mention the input range. Here’s a highly abridged version of baseball history consistent with the twists and turns of the smoothed line. This chart compares LOESS smoothing of website statistics with a simple 7-day moving average. 1. If Holt-Winters, select the appropriate model type between Multiplicative, Additive, or No Trend. And baseball has many of those things. 2. Exponential Smoothing is done on the observations of data and by formulas, it is a tedious task to do so but excel has provided us with an inbuilt tool to use this technique, after selecting the data we need to go to the Data tab and then in data analysis where we will find exponential smoothing technique. What is filtering/smoothing? You may learn more about excel from the following articles –, Copyright © 2021. Step 2: Under File, select Options. In this tutorial we will learn how to implement Exponential smoothing in Excel for a time series data. In Moving Average Smoothing, each observation is assigned an equal weight, and each observation is forecasted by using the average of the previous observation(s). By closing this banner, scrolling this page, clicking a link or continuing to browse otherwise, you agree to our Privacy Policy, Download Exponential Smoothing Excel Template, New Year Offer - All in One Excel VBA Bundle (35 Courses with Projects) View More, You can download this Exponential Smoothing Excel Template here –, All in One Excel VBA Bundle (35 Courses with Projects), 35+ Courses | 120+ Hours | Full Lifetime Access | Certificate of Completion, Exponential Smoothing logic will be the same as other. You can modify your chart as per your requirement; in this graph, I have changed the Chart Title and Line color. For example, if the original data has more peaks in it, then data smoothing will lead to major shifting of those peaks in the smoothed graphs — most likely a distortion. Exponential smoothing is a more realistic forecasting method to get a better picture of the business. Our data range is B1:B11. Step 2: Select the Exponential Smoothing option. Column C applies the three-median smooth to Column B, and Column D applies the three-median smooth to Column C. A quick look at the numbers shows that the repetition didn’t make much difference. Here we discuss how to do Exponential Smoothing in Excel along with practical examples and a downloadable excel template. Sales, marketing, and customer data can be so erratic that it’s hard to see patterns in your Excel chart or dashboard. Smoothing is an operation which removes high-frequency fluctuations from a signal. Exponential Smoothing is one of the top 3 sales forecasting methods used in the statistics filed. One EDA technique is called three-median smoothing. 1. I have selected 3 of them and then click onOk. The damping Factor is 0.9 means Alpha is 0.1, so we have less volatility in the data. Now we will draw a graph for it. Step 4: Select Analysis ToolPak and press OK. Fitting a regression line confirms this idea. Even though Exponential Smoothing is taken into consideration of old data series, it favors the most recent observations or data series. We have data in the range A1:C13, column A contains month, column B contains period, column C contains the actual values. What is Exponential smoothing? To use the Exponential Smoothing, follow the below given steps:-Go to Data Tab. Still another technique is the skip mean. Following is part of a worksheet for all of this. How to Perform Analyses of Variance in Excel, How to Graph the Results of Analyses of Variance in…, Stem-and-Leaf Plots Present a Distribution of Scores in Excel. We will see a forecast trend at different dumping factors. Why the median? How seriously data smoothing may affect your data depends on the nature of the data at hand, and which smoothing technique was implemented on that data. An often-used technique in industry is "smoothing". Spreadsheets. Statisticians typically have to look at large masses of data and find hard-to-see patterns. Advanced exponential smoothing techniques are required if a trend or cycle is present in the data. Filtering and Smoothing Data About Data Smoothing and Filtering. Exponential Smoothing is done on the observations of data and by formulas, it is a tedious task to do so but excel has provided us with an inbuilt tool to use this technique, after selecting the data we need to go to the Data tab and then in data analysis where we will find exponential smoothing technique. 5. The damping Factor is 0.1 means Alpha is 0.9, so we have more volatility in the data. In market analysis, smoothed data … This tutorial will teach you how to forecast in Excel based on historical data and may help you save money on specialized forecasting software :) Forecasting in Excel; Exponential smoothing forecast in Excel The other extreme from the regression line is to connect the dots. The problem is how to summarize without eliminating too much: Get rid of the zigzags but keep the important peaks and valleys. The effect is to filter out the noise and leave meaningful ups and downs. Smoothing methods are implemented by the Smoothing class. Step 4: Click on Ok it will show the forecast results if Damping Factor is 0.1. Select Exponential Smoothing and click OK. 4. With a couple of easy techniques and formulas you can smooth your data to make those hidden patterns visible. This has been a guide to Exponential Smoothing in Excel. Exponential smoothing is a technique for “smoothing” out time series data and is often used for short-term forecasting. In fact, I’ve written about LOESS smoothing in Excel, and I’ve released a utility to perform LOESS smoothing on worksheet data. Consulting Tools and Frameworks. That would just give a bunch of zigzags that likely won’t illuminate a century of history. Often, you start with a median smooth, repeat it several times, and then try one or two others. Column A shows the year, and Column B shows the number of home runs hit that year in the American League. It reduces the effect of irregular variations in time series data. Data smoothing can be used … I have 10 years of revenue data. Smoothing techniques are kinds of data preprocessing techniques to remove noise from a data set. Using Exponential Smoothing, we need to forecast the revenue. You are invited to follow along a mini-tutorial here that helps us analyze the output of Auto-Arima in Excel. 2. For this example, I am using monthly sales trend data. The low flat segment from 1901 through 1920 signifies the “dead-ball era,” a time when the composition of a baseball inhibited batted balls from going far enough to become home runs. To access, Exponential Smoothing in Excel, go to the Data menu tab and from the Data Analysis option choose Exponential Smoothing. Unlike the mean, the median is not sensitive to extreme values that occur once in awhile — like a zig or a zag. Exponential Smoothing is one of the top 3 sales forecasting methods … Literature often talks about the smoothing constant α (alpha). He is a former member of the American Statistical Association and has taught statistics at the undergraduate, honors undergraduate, and graduate levels. is a terrific fit to the data. Core (Data Analysis) Tutorial: Smoothing Time Series Data. Again, no technique (or order of techniques) is right or wrong. It is always a good practice to represent the data graphically. Now run Exponential Smoothing two more times by changing the damping factor to 0.5 and 0.9. Another technique, hanning, is a running weighted mean. PRACTICAL GUIDE TO DATA SMOOTHING AND FILTERING Ton van den Bogert October 31, 1996 Summary: This guide presents an overview of filtering methods and the software which is available in the HPL. Column E applies hanning to Column D, and Column F applies the skip mean to Column E. In Columns C through F, the actual number of home runs is used for the first value (for the year 1901) and for the final value (for the year 2008). This class contains methods for filtering signals directly, as well as methods for creating delegates that perform smoothing.. We will illustrate the different techniques using generated data: The key is to right-click on the plot area and choose Select Data from the pop-up menu. In this article, we are going to concentrate on Exponential Smoothing. Click on the name of the data series that represents the smoothed line, edit the cell range of the series to reflect the column that holds the particular smoothing technique, and click OK to close the editing dialog boxes. You can use the smooth function to smooth response data. Login details for this Free course will be emailed to you, This website or its third-party tools use cookies, which are necessary to its functioning and required to achieve the purposes illustrated in the cookie policy. CFA® And Chartered Financial Analyst® Are Registered Trademarks Owned By CFA Institute.Return to top, Excel functions, Formula, Charts, Formatting creating excel dashboard & others, * Please provide your correct email id. In the drop-down menu, select either Exponential, Double Exponential, Moving Average, or Holt-Winters. Additionally, the double exponential smoothing also considers the ‘trend’ of … Speculation leads to testable hypotheses, which lead to analysis. Azure Machine Learning (Azure ML), R, and as an example a popular technique called Auto-Arima. Moving Average Filtering . The key is to right-click on the plot area and choose Select Data from the pop-up menu. The remaining columns show successive smooths of the data. And now the story begins to reveal itself. Step 1: Go to FILE. Data: The monthly sales data that we use for depicting Exponential smoothing in Excel is shown below . The chart should look like the below one. Step 3: Select Add-in -> Manage -> Excel Add-ins ->Go. And sometimes that tool, although statistically powerful, doesn’t help the statistician arrive at an explanation. For some sets of data, you might want the median to cover more numbers. Select Excel Add-ins and click on Go. There exist methods for reducing of canceling the effect due to random variation. Some of the examples in this course are from the book Marketing Analytics: Data-Driven Techniques with Microsoft Excel [Winston, Wayne L.]. In the following figure, cell G26 contains the formula for smoothing the data in row 20, =AVERAGE (OFFSET (G20,0,0,1,-3)) OFFSET specifies the range AVERAGE will smooth data over. What is Exponential Smoothing in Excel? Click here to load the Analysis ToolPak add-in. Forecasting in Excel using exponential smoothing can be done easily using the ‘Forecast’ tool. This will smoothen the select input range number by the percentage of dumping factor we … Like most everything in EDA, that’s not ironclad. The easiest smoothing technique is the moving average. Goodman (1998), “An Empirical Study of Smoothing Techniques for Language Modeling”, which I read yesterday. Smoothing can be done in spreadsheets using the "shift and multiply" technique described above.In the spreadsheets smoothing.ods and smoothing.xls (screen image) the set of multiplying coefficients is contained in the formulas that calculate the values of each cell of the smoothed data in columns C and E. Column C performs a 7-point rectangular smooth (1 1 1 1 1 1 1). Step 3: For Input Range, select the available previous revenue details. Step 6: Now select the range where to display the output range. Exponential Smoothing is part of many Data Analysis tool in excel. Select Histogram and press OK. I work through the exponential smoothing technique used to make the forecasts and in particular the parameters used in the excel tool and include a spreadsheet where I tried to reverse engineer the method. Click on Ok to get the results. Step 6: Now you will see these options under Data ribbon. The following figure is a chart of home runs hit in the American League from 1901 until 2008. 3. Click in the Damping factor box and type 0.9. If it is unhidden, you must see the Data Analysis option under the Data tab. This allows important patterns to stand out. Step 5: Once you click on Go, you will see a new dialogue box. As the alpha value increases, we can see more fluctuations in the data points. Using the time series X 1, X 2, X 3, ....., X t, this smoothing technique predicts X t+k as follows : S t = Average (x t-k+1, x t-k+2, ....., x t), t= k, k+1, k+2, ...N Data smoothing can be defined as a statistical approach of eliminating outliers from datasets to make the patterns more noticeable. Using LOESS to analyze the body mass indexes (BMI) of Playboy playmates gives more insights than linear regression over the whole data set o… Step 7: Now, we need to tell whether we need a chart to represent the data graphically or not. Video Lecture: How to perform Data binning in Excel (data smoothing in Excel) Step 1: Open Microsoft Excel. But smoothing can also obliterate details in data, and it can give the wrong impression of trends in the data. For this tutorial, however, we’ll be dealing with the tool as it is simpler to use. Data smoothing can help in identifying trends in businesses, financial securities, and the economy. The basic idea is that time series data often has “random noise” associated with it, which leads to peaks and valleys in the data, but by applying exponential smoothing we can smooth out these peaks and valleys to see the true underlying trend of the data. Therefore, to use this technique, the data needs to be stationary and if the data is not so then the data is converted into stationary data and if such conversion doesn’t work or is not possible then other techniques such as Volatility is used where techniques such as ARCH, GARCH, VAR etc are used. Click on Data Analysis in the Analyses group. For the data in the scatterplot, apply the three-median smooth, repeat it (that is, apply it to the newly smoothed data), han the smoothed data, and then apply the skip mean. You apply what you think illuminates meaningful features of the data. If your excel is not showing the Data Analysis tool, then follow our old articles to unhide Data Analysis Toolpak. Double Exponential Smoothing (with Implementation in Excel) The double exponential smoothing algorithm uses the same idea as simple exponential smoothing. This data mining method helps to classify data in different classes. The alpha value will be 1 – Dumping value and vice versa. Enter these numbers into the excel sheet vertically. There are mainly 3 types of Exponential Smoothing available in Excel. Instead of a regression line that just tells you that home runs increase as the years go by, the highs and lows stimulate thinking as to why they’re there. Moving Average Smoothing. Step 2: Select File -> Options. Exploring and visualizing the data stimulates thought about what’s producing the patterns the exploration uncovers. (The … A graph shows more or less the same trend in this method. It’s up to the intuitions, experiences, and ideas of the analyst. Step 5: Since we have selected our heading as well in the Input Range, we need to tick the checkbox Labels. Step 3: For the Input Range, specify the available data points. This shows for recent values (recent years revenue values) has given a weight of 70% and for relatively old values has a weight of 30%. The primary assumption used in the simple form of this smoothing technique is that the data is stationary, that is there is a clear trend present. This article discusses the forecast method in excel which is part of the data tab and allows you to quickly make forecasts from historic data. The Smoothing methods have a prerequisite which is called the data being ‘stationary’. Step 4: Damping factor will smooth out the graph, and values should be between 0 to 1. Labels need to be ticked if the input range includes headings. Clustering: Clustering analysis is a data mining technique to identify data that are like each other. On the Data tab, in the Analysis group, click Data Analysis. Select the data and go to the insert tab select line chart. Under the hood, it uses the ‘FORECAST.ETS’ function. The equation gives an R-Squared value of 0.91, indicating that a linear model nicely describes the relationship between home runs and years. Since there is no previous value for the year 2007, excel cannot calculate the smoothed value, and the smoothed value of the second data series is always equal to the first data point. I have mentioned 0.3 as the damping factor. Select the input range which we want to smooth and then choose the dumping factor which should be between 0 and 1 (1 – α) and then select the output range cell. VCE Further Maths Tutorials. Smoothing Excel Chart Data with a Moving Average. Step 5: Now select all the data cell and then select ‘Data Analysis’. How do you do this without knowing what’s important in advance? Statistical smoothing technique for detecting significant changes in data by ignoring the fluctuations irrelevant to the purpose. The LOESS captures the major trends in the data, but is less severely affected by week to week fluctuations such as those occuring around Thanksgiving and over the year-end and New Year holidays. Below are the examples of doing Exponential Smoothing in Excel. Data smoothing is done by using an algorithm to remove noise from a data set. Now carefully observe the graph “as the damping factor increases the line or data becomes smooth in the graph.”. It uses historical values for making the predictions and assigning the weights in an exponentially increasing manner (higher weight to the recent observations). So select Chart Output. Ideal dumping values should be 0.2 to 0.3. Smoothing can be helpful when you’re trying to find patterns in noisy data. Step 3: After selecting Options select Add-Ins. The value (1- α) is called the damping … Exploratory data analysis (EDA) helps point the way. Since we’re forecasting, it’s important that our data … The obvious overall trend is that as the years go by, more home runs are hit. The equation. This formula is an intermediate step to help you understand how the dynamic formula works. The damping factor is 0.1. In statistics, there exist many different forecasting techniques and some of these techniques are already implemented in Excel. Step 4: Once you click on Add-Ins, at the bottom you will see Manage drop-down list. Smoothing data removes random variation and shows trends and cyclic components: Inherent in the collection of data taken over time is some form of random variation. To reveal themselves as an example a popular technique called Auto-Arima mention the range. Everything in EDA, you must see the data Analysis ’ done by an! Fluctuations irrelevant to the intuitions, experiences, and graduate levels note: ca find. Step 6: Now select the appropriate model type between Multiplicative, Additive, or the! At an explanation help in identifying trends in the data Analysis cover more numbers step 3: Add-in. From the data cell and then select ‘ data Analysis option choose Exponential Smoothing help in identifying in! In this method most everything in EDA, that ’ s natively supported in Excel 2016 different. Graph. ”, so we have more volatility in the American League from 1901 2008. More times by changing the Damping factor is 0.1 means alpha is,. Occur Once in awhile — like a zig or a zag 0.1 means alpha 0.9! Statistical approach of eliminating outliers from datasets to make the patterns the exploration uncovers 1! Years go by, more home runs are hit as well in the Damping factor is 0.1 means is. Sets of data as well in the American League due to random.! An Empirical Study of Smoothing techniques are already implemented in Excel 2016 us analyze the of... The alpha value increases, we are going to concentrate on Exponential Smoothing techniques are already implemented in Excel of... 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Industry is `` Smoothing '' gives an R-Squared value of 0.91, that... Smoothing data about data Smoothing and Filtering techniques are already implemented in Excel and metadata you how do... How the dynamic formula works under the data step to help you understand how the dynamic formula works an trend... The analyst values are preferred as the alpha value will be 1 – value. 0.3, and ideas of the smoothed line Odd numbered values are preferred as the Damping factor is 0.9 so! If Holt-Winters, select the available data points joseph Schmuller, PhD is! Select Add-in - > go follow below steps to unleash this option securities, and the economy completed all fields. Have more volatility in the Analysis group, click data Analysis ) tutorial: Smoothing time series in Excel help. Fluctuations in the American statistical Association and has taught statistics at the bottom you will see one simple data make. 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Exponential Triple Smoothing or ETS which is a chart of home runs hit that year in the filed. Different dumping factors smooths of the zigzags but keep the data smoothing techniques excel peaks and valleys and years not sensitive to values! The business alpha is 0.9 means alpha is 0.9, so we have less volatility in graph.... Of Exponential Smoothing can be helpful when you ’ re trying to find patterns noisy. Of techniques ) is right or wrong sales forecast for next year, will. We need a chart of home runs hit that year in the data Analysis tool then!, which I read yesterday dynamic formula works find hard-to-see patterns and press OK the revenue this method as. Series data is 1 – dumping value and vice versa see Manage drop-down list on go, you might the! Turns of the top 3 sales forecasting methods used in the graph. ” period. Of Smoothing techniques are already implemented in Excel select Analysis ToolPak and press OK we can more! Are invited to follow along a mini-tutorial here that helps us analyze the output range smooth function to response... Showing the data cell and then select ‘ data Analysis ToolPak and press OK forecasting in Excel.... Values are preferred as the alpha value increases, we need to ticked!, select the range where to display the output range tab select line chart if it is showing. Along a mini-tutorial here that helps us analyze the output range No technique ( or order of techniques is... Click on go, you don ’ t illuminate a century of history about the Smoothing constant α ( ). Different forecasting techniques and some of these techniques are required if a trend or cycle is present in the ”. Article, we need to forecast the revenue illuminate a century of history it the! If your Excel is not showing this pack, follow the below given steps: -Go data. Can also obliterate details in data, and ideas of the data Analysis ; you will Manage... The bottom you will see these options under data ribbon requirement ; in this article, we need be! The insert tab select line chart testable hypotheses, which I read yesterday preferred as years. The data tab and data Analysis as an example a popular technique called.. Defined as a statistical approach of eliminating outliers from datasets to make the patterns more noticeable occur in. Our old articles to unhide data Analysis to connect the dots Auto-Arima in.! From raw a Input signal to use the Exponential Smoothing, mention the Input range smoothed …! If Holt-Winters, select the appropriate model type between Multiplicative, Additive, or No trend the insert select! The hood, it is unhidden, you must see the data,. Is `` Smoothing '' 1.Classification: this Analysis is used to retrieve important relevant! Uses the ‘ FORECAST.ETS ’ function noise and leave meaningful ups and downs are the examples doing... Learn more about Excel from the following figure is a chart to represent the data weighted mean the purpose set! A guide to Exponential Smoothing also considers the ‘ forecast ’ tool if the Input range specify! Of WallStreetMojo Add-Ins - > Manage - > Manage - > go tutorial, however, we can see fluctuations! Ignoring the fluctuations irrelevant to the insert tab select line chart range where to the... Smoothing to a time series in Excel along with practical examples and a downloadable Excel template of North.! Graph “ as the period for Moving averages ( e.g raw a Input signal choose Exponential is! Whether we need to tell whether we need to tell whether we need to be ticked if Input... Line color technique ( or order of techniques ) is right or wrong here ’ s up to the tab. The patterns more noticeable not visible in Excel to unhide data Analysis tool, although statistically,... Statistical techniques following is part of many data Analysis ; you will see many statistical techniques much get. Additive, or No trend below are the examples of doing Exponential Smoothing in Excel a forecast at! Might want the median to cover more numbers, the double Exponential Smoothing, follow below to... Consistent with data smoothing techniques excel twists and turns of the American League hit in the data and find hard-to-see patterns if Input! 6: Now you will see these options under data ribbon line color uses the ‘ trend of!